The outlook for 2014 is rather grim. There’s no denying that. Vegas is setting the over/under for wins at
78. Most knowledgeable analysts are
projecting anywhere from 70 to 80 wins.
If I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d take the under without a second’s
hesitation because this roster is riddled with “If’s.” If this happens, and that happens, and he’s
healthy, and he produces, and we play good defense, and our rotation eats
innings, and our bullpen improves, then we are legitimate contenders for the NL
east. Or as the mastermind Ruben Amaro
put it:
“If we do it on the field, then we do it on the field. If we don’t, we’ll have to make changes to do
it better on the field.”
Genius.
This, though, is about the storylines for 2014 as Spring
Training commences, and for the most part this year’s storylines are more like questions than anything. It is no secret
that all of the pieces are going to have to fall perfectly in line to make this
season worth watching, so here goes my list of everything that must go right to
prove all of the preseason projections wrong.
These are the ‘If’s for Success.”
1. IF Ryan Howard,
Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz can return to form
In the past two season,
Ryan Howard has played a total of
just 151 games. Four times in his career
Howard has played more than 151 games in a single season. Obviously, injuries have plagued the aging
first baseman, but that still ceases to explain the decrease in
production. When he was healthy during
that two year span, this power numbers plummeted.
In 260 at-bats in 2012, Howard hit 14 home runs and knocked
in 56 RBI, while striking out 99 times.
In 2013, the decline continued as in 286 at-bats he hit just 11 home
runs and recorded only 43 RBI, and again continuing his Howard-esque ways, fanning
95 times. Now these numbers are deceiving,
as he had less than half of the at-bats than he normally saw when he was a true
threat at the plate. Even, so, Howard
has fallen from baseball’s Mt. Crushmore (it's corny – deal with it) and has
been replaced by younger blood. In other
words, he has become almost forgotten in the talks of frightening bats in the
bigs, and it will take a miraculous turn-around to even hear his name in the
same conversation with Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, and Chris Davis.
IF Howard is even able to give us 25 home runs, and 100 RBI,
I would consider it a success. His
numbers still would be far from his glory years, but at least he’d be offering
something in the clean-up spot that has been a ghost spot for the past two
seasons. The biggest question for the
Big Piece, though, is if he can come up with the big hit. Can he get that clutch bomb when it really
counts? I’m not sure that he can. In fact, I’m not sure that he really ever
has. But, this may be the year that his
lacking of the clutch gene may become even more obvious, and for Ryan’s sake,
that scares me a little.
Jimmy Rollins had 600 at-bats last season. In those 600 at-bats he managed to produce
career-lows in runs, home runs, RBI, and triples for seasons with more than 90
games played. Long gone are the days of
20 homers and 75 RBI. Long gone are the
days of MVP-like numbers. No, Jimmy is
now just an older version of himself on the field, with the same Jimmy
attitude. He continues walk and talk
like he is the toast of the town – like he is the best shortstop in the
league. Unfortunately, he is not. And I don’t mind the confidence and I
certainly don’t mind the swagger (I’ve been told I’m quite the swagger hound
myself, so I know where he’s coming from), but I’d prefer that these attributes
come secondary to production.
IF J-Roll is able to give us 10-15 long balls with 50 RBI,
and his stolen bases and defenses prowess continue at their normal pace, then
he can trash talk and pimp walk all he wants.
As long as he’s helping us win games.
I am excited about
Carlos Ruiz this season, though. It’s not his new contract. It’s not that he’s cut down the pudginess and
turned into a toned, speed demon, but it’s that he received an exemption from
the MLB that will allow him to take Adderall in 2014. I’m not sure how this didn’t make more news
this off-season considering this is the banned drug that cost him 25 games last
year, but it may be exactly what Chooch needed to return to All-Star
form.
In 2012, when he was supposedly taking his ADD medicine,
Ruiz had career numbers. He hit well
over .300, with 16 dingers and 68 RBI.
After last season, I sort of assumed this was just a blip on an
otherwise underwhelming career stat sheet, but maybe somehow the Adderall makes
the baseball seem more like a beach ball, giving him the little edge he needs
to perform at the plate. Either way, it
can’t get much worse than last year, can it? Somehow, 5 home runs and 37 RBI
got Chooch a new contract in Philadelphia, so let’s hope he can right that
ship, take those drugs, and get back on the right path.
IF Chooch can produce at least 10 long balls, around 50 RBI
and continue to call flawless games from behind the dish, I’m a happy fan. And let’s hope he hits a walk-off or two
because his post-game interviews are fantastic
entertainment.
2. IF the back-end of the rotation can win games
At first, I wasn’t the biggest fan of the
AJ Burnett signing. To me, he’s always underperformed for his
talent level, and the inconsistency is obvious.
But, the more I look at, the more I believe this was probably Amaro’s
best off-season move. Without Burnett,
our rotation looks something like this:
1.
Cole Hamels (when he returns to full-strength)
2.
Cliff Lee
3.
Kyle Kendrick
4.
Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona)
5.
Jonathan Pettibone or Ethan Martin – Wilson Valdez would get my vote in this battle
With Burnett solidifying the third spot in that rotation as
a guy with experience and the proven ability to get outs, this staff looks a
whole lot better. By taking away the
battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, you move
Kendrick to four where he
will eat enough innings to make you content, and
Hernandez who will probably
pitch around .500 this season with some spectacular 15-strikeout performances
and some games where he gets absolutely shelled for three innings, this still gives
the team a bit more stability at the back end.
IF Burnett can pitch anywhere near his potential (I’m
talking ERA around 3.5, 180 SO’s) and leaves most games giving us a legitimate
chance to win, then we’re going to have a much more relaxing season having a
bit of confidence in our first three guys.
IF those two back-end starters can offer any consistency,
then I think we would be able to consider that a success. We all know the pain of watching Martin get
lit-up the second time through the rotation, or Pettibone’s flat 89 MPH get
launched into orbit. Too much of this would be bad for our health. Let’s just hope Jesse Biddle has a good
spring and shows some promise for the future.
He seems like the last real prospect left in the farm system.
3. IF time miraculously finds a way to reverse itself six years
“Old doesn’t necessarily mean bad. Old just means old. It also means
experience. So, it’s a matter of our
players being able to perform.” - Ruben
Amaro (quote from the Mike Missanelli Show. January 22nd, 2014)
As far as I’m concerned as a baseball fan – at any level –
players being able to perform is generally important to winning baseball
games. To me this doesn't truly address the
issue that has been the talk of this team for the past couple of seasons – we ARE
old. We’re old at first base, second
base, shortstop, right field, catcher, and starting pitching. Our bench players are even old. It seems as though all of the players who are
expected to produce and are being paid to produce, peaked all at the same
time, which happened to be 2007-2009.
Now these guys are getting paid big bucks, and they’re six years removed
from the prime of their careers.
So, what now? Amaro
has left this team handcuffed with players who finally showed their age the
past two seasons. Howard couldn't hit a
basketball off of a tee in 2012 or 2013 and has turned into a statue in the
field. Rollins had a career-worst season
at the plate in 2013. Golden boy Chase
Utley bounced back from a pretty serious injury that only old-men suffer from,
but it’s hard to imagine that he will be as good in 2014. Plus, his range is decreasing and his noodle-arm
is becoming even more of a problem from deep in the hole. Marlon Byrd had an all-star-type season last
year, and he played himself into a well-deserved contract this year. But, we have to remember – he is still Marlon
Byrd. He’s a 36-year old outfielder who
performed really well the past two seasons, but how much does the guy have left
in the tank? His defense is certainly an
upgrade in right field (the Laynce Nix and Mayberry platoon never did much for me),
but there is a giant question mark next to his name, so he’ll have to prove to
the Philly faithfuls that he’s worth the contract he received. Again, Chooch is old and chubby. Good news: back on Adderall. Bad news: still old and chubby with declining
skills at the plate. Eh. He calls a great game, so I’ll give him a pass
if he has another shitty year offensively.
Cliff Lee isn’t getting any younger. He can’t defy old-man time forever, and
eventually there’s going to be arm problems.
This guy eats up innings unlike any other pitcher in the major leagues,
and at some point that’s going to catch up to him. Let’s just hope it’s not this year. Or the
next. Or the next. We’ll see what we get out of Burnett and
Hernandez. They’re both the kind of guys
where it could be pure magic, or it could be pure heinous (look back at your
old middle school pictures – yeah I’m talking that ugly).
Listen, I’m no major league GM, but it just seems like this
organization is banking on a whole lot of IF’s.
If by some inconceivable circumstance all of these IF’s pan out, then
Amaro looks like a genius. If most of
these IF’s don’t come to fruition, as most of us with logical minds assume,
then Amaro will look like the dummy that I believe him to be. Let’s hope for the best, but I just feel like
I’m looking at a puzzle with too many missing pieces. But, hey, that’s why I’m at home blogging
about the roster, and Amaro is in the front office putting it together. He has to know what he’s doing, right?
